OK, so I have to keep the momentum up after going 3-2 last week. It's not a lot of momentum, mind you. Glacial, even. But like I said earlier, a winning week is a winning week.
NCAA:
Wisconsin @ Ohio St. (-15.5): Wow. I know that this is a "different" Ohio State team, and that Tressel Ball is dead, and that this is a dynamic, explosive offense and hey, didn't you see how good they looked against Penn St. last week? Maybe I'm stubborn, but I seem to remember that this is the same team that struggled mightily against Michigan St. AT HOME two games ago. And that there is always at least one game each season where OSU manages to make an easy win way too difficult.
I don't think Wisconsin is all that great, but they are better than Penn St., and again, Ohio St. having to give that many points against a Top 20 team? It's Ohio (yawn) St.!
Pick: Wisconsin (+15.5)
San Jose St. @ Boise St. (-25.5): Now, usually I would have no problem laying 25.5 with Boise St. at home. But a few things to consider here:
Boise St. is coming off of a really big road win against Fresno St. last week
Ian Johnson may not play again this week, and if he does I'm sure he won't be 100 percent.
Even though Boise St. has won the last three years, each game has been a lot closer than you think it would be.
This is a game where I know the team I'm betting on won't win, but I feel very good that they can keep it close.
Pick: San Jose St. (+25.5)
Cincinnati @ South Florida (-4.5): The home team has won the last four meetings pretty comfortably. South Florida still hasn't lost at home. And Cincinnati has a negative turnover margin in conference games and in October. Not good against a South Florida team that thrives on ball control and capitalizing on mistakes.
Pick: South Florida (-4.5)
NFL:
Denver @ Detroit (-3): Thanks to Jon Kitna deciding to poke fun at a Lions' assistant coach getting drunk and driving naked through a drive-through last year, this is a "week of adversity" for the team. Normally, I'd say that for a Cinderalla team like Detroit that has no business being 5-2, any adversity would be enough to push them towards collapse. I mean, they are the Lions.
But two things are at play here: a) I don't think this is a controversy at all within the team, and if anything it might create one of those "us against the World" scenarios millionaire athletes feed on (re: New England Patriots) and b) they are playing the Broncos, who about as close to a "can't miss" prospect to not cover as we have in the NFL. They are 1-6 Against the Spread (ATS) this year and 6-18 in their last 24 games overall. Basically, Vegas (or the betting public) hasn't caught up yet to the fact that these aren't the same Broncos teams of even a couple of seasons ago. Mike Shanahan's magic is gone - teams have figured out "the system" and it turns out that you sometimes do need more talent at running back than just plugging in rejects and 5th round draft picks.
Until Vegas figures this out, keep riding the anti-Orange Crush.
Pick: Detroit (-3)
New England @ Indianapolis (+5.5): So the defending Super Bowl champions, who are: a) undefeated, b) look better defensively than last year, c) have beaten two straight division rivals with winning records on the road, d) have maybe the best QB ever and e) oh yeah, are at home, are almost a touchdown underdog in any game?
Excuse me for a minute; my eyes just bugged out of my head like Roger Rabbit.
You know which teams are usually underdogs by that much at home? The Raiders. The Bils. The Cardinals. The Vikings. In other words, the worst of the worst, not the defending champions who have been steamrolling everyone in their own right.
Look, for all of New England's offensive fireworks so far this season, Bill Belachick does not want to get into a shootout against Peyton Manning - it's as simple as that. And Tony Dungy is not going to let the Patriots fire away downfield all game. The Colts are going to force New England to run - maybe they can and maybe they can't, but they aren't going to put up 40 points that way. New England might win, but we all know it's coming down to the end of the game.
Pick: Indianapolis (+5.5)
Bonus pick: Arizona St. gets drilled by Oregon harder that a wildcatter in an unclaimed spot of Texas land. Oregon 34, Arizona St. 13.
