Dear ASU Fan,
I'm guessing you're still in shock. Yeah, I know some of you might have seen this coming, but I also personally know that a lot of you didn't. Either way, I know that it doesn't feel any better the day after to be left out of the NCAA Tournament than it did right after the announcements were made yesterday afternoon. If anything, the shock is starting to wear off, and the pain is starting to get more real.
And I want to sympathize. I honestly do. As a fan of a PAC-10 team, I want to see our conference get as much recognition as possible. I'll always root for a PAC-10 team versus any other team (provided that PAC-10 team isn't UCLA - I pretty much hope every day that their team, to quote a Kids in the Hall sketch, dies in a warehouse fire). It would have been great to see seven teams from the conference make the tournament.
But here's the thing...it was never, ever going to happen. Seven teams out of a 10-team conference was just absurd, a pipe dream. And if one team was going to be left out, it was always going to be you.
Of course, the No. 1 problem is here: take a look at the end-of-season RPI numbers and try to find Arizona St. You'll have to scroll down a bit, since they are way down at No. 83, directly behind teams that had no chance of getting an at-large bid like San Diego St. and Ohio. And why is that number so low? Because you played a lousy, terrible non-conference schedule, leading to you having the No. 77-ranked Strength of Schedule in the country. Versus Arizona and Oregon (the other two PAC-1o "bubble" teams that got in), which had RPIs of 38 and 58, and SOSs of 2 and 37, respectively.
"But Duke, why should it matter if you play a tougher schedule if you don't win the games?" I've heard this a lot the past 24 hours from ASU fans (all three that I know). But, if we're being honest - yeah, it does matter who you play, even if you lose. Because if you scheduled patsies instead of difficult games, that would be one or two extra wins on your record. Suddenly, Oregon and Arizona both look a lot more like tournament teams according to their records. By the way, here are each team's records against the Top 100 in RPI:
Arizona: 10-12
Arizona St.: 7-10
Oregon: 8-11
Not that I'm thrilled with any of those records, but Arizona St. had the worst record of the three teams. And that's something you can control.
But the bigger picture issue that most ASU fans don't want to deal with is that they weren't being judged against Arizona, or Oregon. They were being judged against all Division I teams. Whether they beat Arizona twice wasn't as important as where both team's resumes fit into the grand scheme of all Division I teams. And if you let the Sun Devils in the field, how are you going to tell the afore-mentioned San Diego St. and Ohio, not to mention the host of teams ahead of Arizona St. in the RPI, that they don't deserve to go?
And let's not bring up "Hey, we beat Xavier!" One win against a quality team does not an NCAA tournament resume make. Hell, how about Stephen F. Austin, then? They beat Oklahoma on the road, and finished 22-5. Charlotte went 5-5 against the RPI Top 50, and no one is bitching about them not making it.
The bottom line is: if you think Arizona St. was the last team out, that means that they would have (in theory) been in with one more win. And there were plenty of chances to get it. Blown call or not, Arizona St. had USC on the ropes in the PAC-1o tournament and then basically stopped scoring for the final 10 minutes of the game. They lost to a lousy Illinois team by 23 and a not-very-good Nebraska team by 15. Win one of those two games you should have won, and we're not having this discussion.
And oh yeah, going 5-10 in your last 15 games isn't really a great way to convince anyone that you are tournament-worthy. Not that it would have mattered much: as Pat Forde pointed out on ESPN.com, it's been seven years since a team with an RPI lower than No. 70 has won an NCAA tournament game. So, you probably just saved yourself a drubbing in the 6-11 game. Enjoy the NIT and a couple of extra home games, and don't worry about what the big boys are doing - it doesn't concern you.
Best,
The Duke of Kickball
