Counterpoint: An Open Letter to ASU Basketball Fans

Dear ASU Fan,

I'm guessing you're still in shock. Yeah, I know some of you might have seen this coming, but I also personally know that a lot of you didn't. Either way, I know that it doesn't feel any better the day after to be left out of the NCAA Tournament than it did right after the announcements were made yesterday afternoon. If anything, the shock is starting to wear off, and the pain is starting to get more real.

And I want to sympathize. I honestly do. As a fan of a PAC-10 team, I want to see our conference get as much recognition as possible. I'll always root for a PAC-10 team versus any other team (provided that PAC-10 team isn't UCLA - I pretty much hope every day that their team, to quote a Kids in the Hall sketch, dies in a warehouse fire). It would have been great to see seven teams from the conference make the tournament.

But here's the thing...it was never, ever going to happen. Seven teams out of a 10-team conference was just absurd, a pipe dream. And if one team was going to be left out, it was always going to be you.

Of course, the No. 1 problem is here: take a look at the end-of-season RPI numbers and try to find Arizona St. You'll have to scroll down a bit, since they are way down at No. 83, directly behind teams that had no chance of getting an at-large bid like San Diego St. and Ohio. And why is that number so low? Because you played a lousy, terrible non-conference schedule, leading to you having the No. 77-ranked Strength of Schedule in the country. Versus Arizona and Oregon (the other two PAC-1o "bubble" teams that got in), which had RPIs of 38 and 58, and SOSs of 2 and 37, respectively.

"But Duke, why should it matter if you play a tougher schedule if you don't win the games?" I've heard this a lot the past 24 hours from ASU fans (all three that I know). But, if we're being honest - yeah, it does matter who you play, even if you lose. Because if you scheduled patsies instead of difficult games, that would be one or two extra wins on your record. Suddenly, Oregon and Arizona both look a lot more like tournament teams according to their records. By the way, here are each team's records against the Top 100 in RPI:

Arizona: 10-12
Arizona St.: 7-10
Oregon: 8-11

Not that I'm thrilled with any of those records, but Arizona St. had the worst record of the three teams. And that's something you can control.

But the bigger picture issue that most ASU fans don't want to deal with is that they weren't being judged against Arizona, or Oregon. They were being judged against all Division I teams. Whether they beat Arizona twice wasn't as important as where both team's resumes fit into the grand scheme of all Division I teams. And if you let the Sun Devils in the field, how are you going to tell the afore-mentioned San Diego St. and Ohio, not to mention the host of teams ahead of Arizona St. in the RPI, that they don't deserve to go?

And let's not bring up "Hey, we beat Xavier!" One win against a quality team does not an NCAA tournament resume make. Hell, how about Stephen F. Austin, then? They beat Oklahoma on the road, and finished 22-5. Charlotte went 5-5 against the RPI Top 50, and no one is bitching about them not making it.

The bottom line is: if you think Arizona St. was the last team out, that means that they would have (in theory) been in with one more win. And there were plenty of chances to get it. Blown call or not, Arizona St. had USC on the ropes in the PAC-1o tournament and then basically stopped scoring for the final 10 minutes of the game. They lost to a lousy Illinois team by 23 and a not-very-good Nebraska team by 15. Win one of those two games you should have won, and we're not having this discussion.

And oh yeah, going 5-10 in your last 15 games isn't really a great way to convince anyone that you are tournament-worthy. Not that it would have mattered much: as Pat Forde pointed out on ESPN.com, it's been seven years since a team with an RPI lower than No. 70 has won an NCAA tournament game. So, you probably just saved yourself a drubbing in the 6-11 game. Enjoy the NIT and a couple of extra home games, and don't worry about what the big boys are doing - it doesn't concern you.

Best,
The Duke of Kickball

Posted by The Duke of Everything at 3:55 PM 2 comments  

Something like a Civil War

It was a pretty tense day here at Your Face is a Sports Blog - Arizona St. was playing USC in the Pac-10 Tournament. The Fightin' McLanes were looking to get off the NCAA tournament bubble with a win, while USC was looking to jump up a seed or more in the NCAA tournament with a strong run in the Pac-10 tourney.

It was a close game all the way. I missed the first half (thanks for starting the game involving the local team at noon, Pac-10!), but snuck out to McDonald's and watched the second half there (how I wish this wasn't true).

Here's what everyone is going to talk about after the game - this play and foul call on Arizona St.'s Jeff Pendergraft within the final 30 seconds and the Sun Devils trailing by two:



First, let me state for the record: that was a terrible call. Pendergraft simply outjumped Davon Jefferson and made a great play. I'd be ticked if it happened to USC, too. And certainly the pressure is on Pac-10 officials since their twin fuck-ups in UCLA's games over the weekend.

But here's the thing: Arizona St. finished the game missing their final 10 shots from the field. They didn't make a field goal in the final nine and a half minutes of the game. In short, the Sun Devils, with their season possibly on the line, completely fell apart. It's hard to make a case for a team that's on the bubble when that is how they handle pressure. SI's Stewart Mandel agrees - he has them out of the tournament as of right now.

A final thought - I saw at least three very ticky-tack fouls called against USC in the second half that led to Arizona St. free throws. But the bottom line is that people don't remember the dodgy call on a outside jumper with five minutes left - they remember the bad call on the game-tying slam dunk with 15 seconds left.

Posted by The Duke of Everything at 8:26 PM 1 comments  

Last Night's Pac-10 Basketball Round-Up

- UCLA beat Stanford in overtime 77-67 to win the regular season conference title. Of course, there wouldn't have been an overtime if Darren Collison hadn't have been...touched?...lightly grazed?...
by Stanford's Lawrence Hill while driving to the basket down by two at the end of regulation:



Which, yeah, it's a terrible call. But keep in mind that a) Stanford blew a big lead in the game and b) how do you not have some sort of way to stop Collison from getting that much penetration at the end of the game to begin with?

- Meanwhile, cross-town, USC was doing their best to blow a game they needed, choking away a 10-point lead in the final two minutes and change before coming back in overtime to beat Cal, 93-89. Yes, the win basically locks up USC's NCAA tournament bid, but as a fan I'm concerned. This isn't the first time USC has failed to hold onto a big lead late and had to go to OT to get the win, and I don't like seeing the defense get torched like that. Actually, "seeing it" was impossible, since it wasn't on TV here in LA. Thanks, Fox Sports!

- Remember how excited Arizona St. fans were getting about beating USC, and how they were already trying to decide on their viewing plans for the Sun Devils' opening round game? Well, I guess they forgot that they had two more games to play on the road, starting with last night against Oregon. Unfocused team + desperate opponent + difficult venue = a 67-61 loss and a return squarely to the edge of the NCAA tournament bubble. (ESPN's Joe Lunardi has them as one of the last four teams in so you would think it would behoove them to win at least one game in the Pac-10 tournament, and for God's sake don't lose to Oregon St.)

Meanwhile, Oregon fans are cute and delusional and still think they have a chance to get into the tournament as an at-large.

- Arizona crushed Oregon St. 81-45, and more importantly perhaps, got starter Nic Wise back from a knee injury that has sidelined him for much of the season. On a related note, I don't think you can overstate how awful Oregon St. is until you see them firsthand. It's rare that you see a team that is physically outclassed that also manages to be less prepared, disciplined or focused than their opponents game after game. It's an impressive display of suckage.

So the bottom line is, how many berths will the NCAA give the Pac-10? I still think five - it will be hard to sell sending two teams with .500 regular season conference records (which Arizona, Arizona St. and Oregon will all have at best).

Posted by The Duke of Everything at 1:47 PM 1 comments